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Continue reading →: Chipotle’s Crunch: Rising Corn Feed and Avocado Costs Squeeze Margins, Signal a 2025 ShortfallSHORT position on Chipotle generating a ~24% IRR over a 1-year hold period I recommend either to put on a short position on the basis that the business will underperform consensus estimates on a sales and margin basis driven by slowergrowth in new restaurant adds and impact on key inputs…
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Continue reading →: GETY / SSTK Merger – Two Sinking Ships or “Picture” Perfect?
My target price for GETY is ~$4.00 / share over a ~12/14 month hold period, generating a ~30%+ IRR at 3:1 risk/reward, assuming the merger with Shutterstock receives regulatory approval. The recently announced merger between Getty Images and Shutterstock is an interesting case study into two companies grappling with massive…
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Continue reading →: Cruise Line Industry & Company Analysis
Executive Summary Current secular tailwinds, market and company fundamentals make cruise lines an attractive investment, with multiple drivers of outsized value and potential macro upsides creating long term value for the category Macro Cruise Trends Debt Balance by Age Group identifies accelerating debt balances across 30-70+ year olds and Credit…
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Continue reading →: Howmet Aerospace – Industrial Gas Turbine Demand Creating Significant Upside
Executive Summary & Recommendation I recommend a long position in Howmet Aerospace (HWM – NYSE) on the basis that the business will outperform consensus estimates on a sales and margin basis driven by a heightened demand in engine products in the industrial segment My target price is $175 / share…
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Continue reading →: WWD – Short-Term Buy, Mid-Term Sell
Recommendation and Thesis Short-term: BUY WWD with a price target of $110.00 (~10% upside / <1% downside). – Timing: ~1 month timeframe through the beginning of March (0.24% average 90 Day price change dictating downside). – Variant View: Air India has been rumored to place a ground-breaking ~500 unit order…
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Continue reading →: Shoals – Post Q3 Earnings Update
Executive Summary – Update on Shoals Position Based on further analysis and absorption of Q3 ‘22 earnings, I have revised my thesis, and am proposing to short Shoals with a target price of $19.40 and upside of ~38% Basis for Revision 2023 Revenue is adjusted to reflect a likely elongated…
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Continue reading →: Slowly “Shoaling Away”
Executive Summary & Recommendation I recommend a short position in Shoals Technologies (SHLS – Nasdaq) on the basis that business fundamentals will continue to deteriorate over the next 12 months My target price of $14.50 / share, implying a potential upside of ~35% with a ~4% risk to downside Base…
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Money Mischief 